BIKEPGH MESSAGE BOARD ARCHIVE

read that year's ago. it's been on my list of stuff to re-read, but i never get around to that because there's so many other books that i haven't read yet

just finished his long emergency. scary stuff, but have to admit that the possibility of running out of oil without any other quick fix was slightly exhilarating. then, reality struck and i realized that don't want to be around for that much death and destruction. the possibility shouldn't be ignored either.

I have not read the book but I am familiar with kunsler. I regularly listen to his podcast. He puts out a new one every Thursday on:

http://kunstlercast.com/

his podcast is funny.

When I was in college I went to a lecture Kunstler gave, and it was a really eye-opening experience.

I just downloaded a couple of his podcasts and I'm hooked. The first few I heard weren't especially funny, Erok, but later ones are.

In one, Kunstler says bikes won't be a solution in the coming "long emergency" since they require high-tech alloys and other materials. I don't know about all that, but in the following discussion of horses (which, while alloy free, will require massive amounts of hay, etc.) is that they are very labor-intensive. Can't park it in the stable and just expect it to be there the next time you need it--you need to feed it, groom it, etc.--which is not unlike early cars. (Or bikes, if you, being somewhat unlike me, have nice ones and wipe off dirt, lubricate appropriately and do other routine maintenance.)

On a recent visit to the Frick Art and Historical Center's antique cars exhibit, I thought of this as I saw some old-timey cars that required some real lead time before they could be used (10-20 minutes to get water boiling in the case of one steam-powered car). But surely the wealthy owners of those gilded-age toys had mechanics who were told to "have the car ready at 10 tomorrow," just as they had stable workers who would dress a horse for riding at an appointed time.

I really enjoy JHK, but, at least for myself, he is one voice among many that influence me (that is, he is not some of singular prophet). Below is what I've taken away from him:

1. "Easy motoring" (which is distinct, I think, from judiciously using a car) has created an unsustainable culture, and not only because oil will run out.

2. We've built a culture that has fundamentally changed the way we interact with each other. Our communities aren't really communities in the historical sense--they are simply a bunch of people who happen to live in the same place. This leaves us woefully unprepared for Bad Things.

3. We need to rebuild local food systems

4. We cannot ride technology out of the current mess. Most people won't re-assess points 1-3 unless backed into a corner.

5. We need to start making other arrangements for our lives.

Thank's for summarizing, seriously. Do you mind if I re-use it. It's hard for me to summarize things and those are the ideas I'd like to share with people. It's hard to get people to read a whole book. I think you succinctly arranged the ideas I want to share with people. "YOUR CAR SUCKS" isn't really working.

Hey sure. Have at it.

i guess i meant funny in the sense that he's such a curmudgeon at times and it makes me laugh. i don't think he's always trying to be funny

He gets a bit shrill, almost whiney, I guess this is off-putting.

I'm joking, he really does. even I the vehement anti-car propagandist think he gets a bit over the top. Interesting read though.

One thing I worry about - if gas goes up enough to put a dent into the suburb, the car free life sill get a whole lot more expensive.

Supply and demand.

Gas gets to be $10 or $15 a gallon, rents and price in the city will go way up.

Mick

Life in pleasant neighborhoods in the city is already relatively expensive.

This is, however, why we need to be damn sure that the large number of new developments that'll be going up in the next 50 years or so anyway (since the population's still growing) will be relatively urban. Hopefully, since a lot of the population growth is coming from immigrant groups with different cultural norms, many of those people will look for something more dense & walkable than our present "American dream" ugly-burbs.

In one, Kunstler says bikes won't be a solution in the coming "long emergency" since they require high-tech alloys and other materials.

I read an article on people making entire bicycles out of wood once. I don't feel that you absolutely need alloys and such to create a bike. Meh.

Keep in mind that Kunstler doesn't necessarily hold up the city as the solution to our problems. JHK himself calls Saratoga Springs home (population ~26,000), and I'm guessing he lives there because it best fits his vision of how we should structure our living arrangements. Kunstler is as much a critic of many urban developments as he is of suburban developments.

One more thing. "Making Other Arrangements" is a favorite Kunstler essay, primarily because of this:

It’s a daunting agenda, all right. And some of you are probably wondering how you are supposed to remain hopeful in the face of these enormous tasks. Here’s the plain truth, folks: Hope is not a consumer product. You have to generate your own hope. You do that by demonstrating to yourself that you are brave enough to face reality and competent enough to deal with the circumstances that it presents. How we will manage to uphold a decent society in the face of extraordinary change will depend on our creativity, our generosity, and our kindness, and I am confident that we can find these resources within our own hearts, and collectively in our communities.

At some level I can accept the contention that "something's gotta give," if for no other reason than American productivity will not likely remain relatively as high as it is compared to the rest of the world forever. But I absolutely reject the notion that the change will be some catastrophic fall into the abyss. This is going to happen over time -- a relatively long time. Gas prices will spike and fall now and then, but the end of "cheap oil" will not be akin to "shutting off the tap." There are too many sources of oil available to us that are not in play today, but would be if prices stayed high for the long term. Some of them were starting to look attractive at $4 per gallon gasoline, but not quite. That presents, however, an upper bound on gas prices in the short term, which I define as the next hundred years or so. I also reject the contention that technology cannot get us out of this. To the extent that we remain fundamentally so rich as an economy, technology will continue to bail us out. That's the funny thing about technology -- no one predicts the next big breakthrough. I won't bore you with the quotes of patent officers and their statements to the effect that everything's already been thought of. What will bring us down, however, is that at some point we may not be able to afford the technology because we have slipped in our standing as world leader in output. I don't see that in the next several generations, by the way, but we're still a relatively young country. If we can rise as fast as we have, then others can do the same under the right circumstances.

In the end, Kunstler comes across as little more than so many naysayers who have fallen by the wayside unvindicated in the past, though I do agree with his thesis about communities. When times get tough, having connections with the people around you makes a big difference. And to the extent that suburban sprawl and McMansions hinder that (if only psychologically) then I can at least be on board with that.

By the way, if I were to look for the excesses in our country that will need to change the most (especially since this thread at least partially addresses housing) is the notion that families must have homes that are as big as what we are accustomed to here. Look around the world (or even into the really poor areas here) -- at some point we will not expect thousands of square feet of housing for each family. The impacts on energy use of THAT change will be much more profound than cutting back on cars.

Science, predictions, gas prices aside, people are starting to ride bikes because they can't afford to own a car and they still need to get to work.

Yes, and as gas prices (and other costs of owning cars) continue to rise, people will continue looking for cheaper ways to get to work. I am in total agreement. I also think people will begin to choose smaller houses (well, living spaces, really -- houses are a luxury) and eat less (something Americans really need). I only disagree with the rate at which these changes will happen. There's nothing I've seen to make me think it will be like falling off a cliff.

no, I think more like sliding down a slippery slope, your half way down before you realize you can't get back up. I've been really paying attention to who's riding bikes down Butler, lot's of guys with really nice bikes, taking a weekend ride, some fixie kids and people just going to work or some place else, It would appear they don't even want to be on a bike but they gotta get there.

I agree about Kunstler's naysaying. I don't read him because I think he's necessarily right or wrong about peak oil.

Personally, I think ownership (as in homes) is important, but not in the way that our culture currently views it. Read Wendell Berry's Home Economics to understand where I'm coming from. I do agree that we need to live in smaller places.

I also reject the contention that technology cannot get us out of this.

I think that a lot of people aren't saying that technology can't get us out of this, but rather that we oughtn't sit back and count on that to happen in time.

If Superman were real, and we were in a runaway train, it wouldn't be wise of us to sit back and say "Superman will save us! " even though he probably will. We'd be much better off trying to find some brakes, detaching from the engine car, whatever, and if he shows up and saves us anyway, then hey, bonus.

The technology angle, for Kunstler, is important because his beef with cars isn't necessarily the environmental impact, but the cultural one. If we can find a cheap, clean way to keep cars on the road, this doesn't help reshape the way our disfunctional community development models work. He is very critical of the way we've structured our communities in that they allow us to detach ourselves from the people around us.

timto, I am terribly impressed with your ability to read the minds of cyclists on Butler St,. You follow this up with the ability to extrapolate this information to describe the views of the majority of cyclists in the greater Pittsburgh area.

Bravo.

It would appear they don't even want to be on a bike but they gotta get there.

There are certainly lots of people who would rather own a car, but can't afford one, and bike instead. I would hate to see our entire society reduced to that point. If I wanted to live in India, I would move there.

I would much rather that Americans be able to afford cars, but choose not to, or choose not to use them so much. That's a tough sell, since auto ownership and use is so deeply ingrained in our culture.

I agree with the comments that our communities are structured in ways that allow us to detach from those around us, but I think the bigger culprit there is television.

I think we are forming new notions of community around the Internet, in fact. My community includes people thousands of miles away, and we certainly would help each other out a jam if we need to.

I think we are forming new notions of community around the Internet, in fact. My community includes people thousands of miles away, and we certainly would help each other out a jam if we need to.

I agree, and don't necessarily think "virtual communities" are bad things, but physical proximity has its advantages. Should things go horribly awry, someone thousands of miles away may not even know you need help, let alone be able to provide it quickly.

I think one thing that's great about this particular forum is that many of us know each other in the "meat space" and many of us are neighbors (this, I think, contributes to overall positive tone of the board). That physical connection is important.

I think one thing that's great about this particular forum is that many of us know each other in the "meat space" and many of us are neighbors (this, I think, contributes to overall positive tone of the board). That physical connection is important.

That's beautiful, man.

Yeah, I had to wipe a tear from my eye when I wrote it.

You won't get any arguments from me that communities are important, and that the burbs can be a tough place to know your neighbors. But then again, I voted with my feet... when I bought a house in the city. In fact, the street I live on is what sold me on the place. I'd like to point out, however, that communities are not enough on their own. Tribal Pakistan or Afghanistan are all very tight communities, but they exist in the stone age. On the other hand, that's probably the only sustainable model of human development we know of today. And that gets to the point about cars: getting rid of cars would create serious challenges to our current way of life that would likely result in us developing local food infrastructure, being more physically active, having smaller houses (think middle ages, here -- build only with what you've got on hand), living on less land, using less water, etc. But as long as we're more educated and more productive than the rest of the world, we will continue to live above the average. Whether you draw the line on one side or other on cars, it probably doesn't matter -- cars are only one piece of the equation.

Eric, it's amazing how critical people on this message board are, my statement, It would appear they don't even want to be on a bike but they gotta get there. I use the the words "it would appear" as in "it's my opinion", although I have talked to a few people who've said they ride a bike for economic reasons only, not to be green, not because they didn't like cars, only because they have to go somewhere. I'm not sure where I extrapolate information to describe the views of the majority of cyclists in the greater Pittsburgh area. I'm just talking about people I see and talk to on Butler street, hardly all of Pgh, a rather small sampling actually.